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Commentary – I’m pessimistic about Syria

I made my own gloomy contribution to the debate on the National Journal expert blog about the prospects for democracy in Syria:

[T]he ruling Alawite minority knows that losing power would not just be a personal disaster for them and their families but a general disaster for the entire Alawite community….[so t]here’s no sign the Syrian security forces will stop shooting of their own accord. Indeed, in past disturbances, they’ve killed people by the tens of thousands.

I’m sad to say that I expect more bloodshed and continued tyranny, not a successful democratic revolution. I hope I’m wrong. And certainly this extraordinary Arab Spring has surprised everyone again and again so far.

For the full post in context, go to the current discussion at the National Journal blog.

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